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Delegates at the National Vanilla Workshop in Kampala, where Johnson Mugarra presented forecasting findings
Kampala, Uganda · Open to remote & international work
Data Scientist & ML Engineer

I go where the
data lives.

Six years turning satellite passes, farmer surveys, and causal inference into models that East African governments and international partners act on — from the vanilla farms of the west to a presentation at the national policy table.

Field years
6+
Projects delivered
15+
Pipeline data quality
95%+
95%+
Pipeline Data Quality
85%
Faster Evaluation Cycles
80%+
Forecast Accuracy
6+ yrs
Data & Analytics Experience

Past Engagements

Manipal Academy of Higher Education Makerere University MAAIF — Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries Center for Research & Communication Bronkar Uganda CRS — Catholic Relief Services IRC — International Rescue Committee UNDP — United Nations Development Programme USAID Enimiro Uganda
About me

Shaped by Research. Defined by the Mathematics.

I started my career in management consulting at Bronkar Uganda — learning how organisations frame decisions and what makes evidence actually move people. That curiosity pulled me deeper: I moved into M&E research for international non-profits, running evaluations and impact assessments for USAID, UNDP, IRC, and others across East Africa.

The more rigorous the questions got, the more I wanted the mathematical tools to match them. That's what drove me to the M.Sc. in Data Science — not a pivot, a deliberate deepening. I wanted to work across the full stack: machine learning, natural language processing, computer vision, and Bayesian statistical inference — not just apply packaged methods, but understand what's happening inside them.

That depth has shaped the systems I've built since: a predictive analytics platform for Uganda's vanilla export sector at MAAIF and Makerere University, fusing NASA POWER satellite data with ground measurements to cut forecast error by 18% — findings that reached a national forum attended by the Head of State. And automated evaluation pipelines at USAID SITES that compressed six-week assessment cycles to under ten days.

Today I work two roles remotely: Research & MEAL Specialist at the Center for Research & Communication, and R&D Consultant at Enimiro, where I build the farmer data system, yield models, and plot maps behind a vanilla and coffee agribusiness. I'm drawn to problems where the uncertainty is real, the data is difficult, and getting it right actually changes something. Certified in Power BI, SAS, Tableau, and Google project management. Based in Kampala — open to remote and international engagements.

Depth

ML · NLP · Computer Vision · Bayesian Inference — across the full stack, from statistical foundations through production deployment.

Impact

18% forecast error reduction. 85% faster evaluation cycles. Evidence that reached Uganda's national policy table and shaped real programme decisions.

Recognition

Co-author on peer-reviewed agronomy research in Agronomy (MDPI) and Advances in Agriculture (Wiley), and presented findings at a national forum attended by President Museveni.

Field record

Experience

  1. Nov 2025 — Present

    Research & Data Consultant

    Enimiro · Remote

    Own the data platform behind a vanilla and coffee agribusiness: seven automated pipelines spanning SurveyCTO-to-PostgreSQL ETL, NASA POWER climate data, Prophet harvest forecasts, purchase and pollination analysis, and inspection follow-ups. Also lead standalone studies, including a farmer Living Income study and the Kayunga agrohub needs assessment, plus a yield-estimation model and district plot maps.

  2. Jan 2025 — Present

    Research & MEAL Specialist

    Center for Research & Communication (CRC)

    Lead analytics, AI adoption, and M&E frameworks across multi-sector programmes. Run technical workshops on ML, statistical modelling, Python, R, and Power BI, and establish data-governance and quality-assurance protocols.

  3. Jan 2024 — May 2025

    Data Scientist

    MAAIF · VANEX · Makerere University · CRS

    Built an end-to-end forecasting system fusing API, satellite, and ground data (18% MAE reduction, 80%+ accuracy), automated ETL pipelines with Python and Airflow, and presented findings to a national forum attended by the Head of State.

  4. Jun 2023 — May 2025

    Research Associate

    USAID-SITES · SSS Inc. · DLH Corporation

    Supervised digital data collection and ran SQL/Python data-quality audits (95%+ reliability) for facility readiness and Health Information Exchange assessments, with stakeholder dashboards and automated reporting across SurveyCTO, Power BI, and PostgreSQL.

  5. Jul 2021 — Jun 2023

    Data Analyst / Research Associate

    Bronkar (U) Limited

    Designed M&E frameworks and digital data-collection tools that cut field operations time by 25%, ran mixed-methods statistical analysis, and led staff training on analytics tools across East Africa.

Projects

Featured Projects

1 / 11

GitHub Activity

A year of public commits, pulled straight from GitHub

GitHub contribution chart
View GitHub Profile →
Interactive Demos

Live Analytics

Financial Analytics · Predictive Modelling

Transaction Fraud Detection Model

Gradient-boosted risk scores across 2,000 synthetic bank transactions. Each point is plotted by predicted risk score vs. transaction amount (log scale); the clustering reveals how the model separates legitimate behaviour from suspicious and confirmed fraud. The dashed vertical line marks the 0.50 classification threshold.

Channel:
Legitimate
Suspicious
Confirmed Fraud
Threshold 0.50
Expertise

Skills & Technologies

Programming & Data Science

Python (TensorFlow, PyTorch, Scikit-Learn)90%
R Programming (Prophet, ARIMA)88%
SQL & Database Management85%

Analytics & Engineering

Tableau / Power BI92%
ETL Pipelines / Airflow85%
NLP & Time-Series Forecasting82%
MLOps & Model Deployment80%
Languages
PythonRSQLJavaBash / Batch
ML / AI Frameworks
TensorFlowPyTorchScikit-LearnStatsmodelsProphetXGBoostKeras
Visualisation & BI
TableauPower BILooker StudioArcGISPlotlyD3.js
Data Engineering & MLOps
AirflowSparkHadoopDockerGitPostgreSQLMongoDBAPI Integration
Cloud & Tools
AWSAzureGoogle CloudJupyterVS CodeRStudio
Get in touch

Let's talk about a project

If you're weighing a data problem where the uncertainty is real and the stakes are concrete — an evaluation, a forecast, a model that has to hold up in the field — I'd like to hear about it. Based in Kampala; I work with partners across East Africa and remotely worldwide.

Scan to connect

QR Code to contact Johnson Mugarra
What people say

Testimonials

"Johnson's forecasts changed how we plan. He combined satellite data with our field measurements, and the results went straight into briefings at the highest levels of government."

M
Senior Research Lead
MAAIF / Makerere University

"The pipeline Johnson built took our evaluation process from six weeks to under ten days. Our USAID reports now go out on schedule, with data we don't have to re-check."

C
Director of Research
Center for Research & Communication

"Few people can build the model and then explain it to a policymaker. Johnson's research was presented at the highest level of government, and it held up."

R
Research Supervisor
Makerere University
Research & Presentations

Publications & Key Presentations

1 / 4
Credentials

Education & Certifications

Education

MAHE
M.Sc. Data Science
2022 – 2024
Makerere University
B.Sc. Agriculture Science
2016 – 2021

Certifications

Project Management
Google Certified
Professional Certificate
Power BI
Microsoft Certified
Data Analyst Associate
SAS Statistics
SAS Institute
Statistical Business Analyst
Tableau
Tableau / Salesforce
Desktop Specialist